Reasoning

How Not To Get Fooled (even by yourself)

Notes

We'll come back to the distinction between cause and indication later in the talk.

Note: I was pleased to see everyone in my audience immediately grasped the distinction between the version of the story presented by the audience member and the true story - a useful analogy for people who need a little help with the concept is when a man who is normally clean-shaved and dressed in a suit starts wearing rags and stubble, it is possible to conclude that he's not in his normal state of mind - but not that wearing rags made him crazy. I also added that one psychiatric expert did point out that getting a sugar rush might have exacerbated the defendant's mental state, which may have led to some of the confusion in the media.

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